Your weekly fundamental view 2016.03.21

Mars 21, 2016 09:17

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Need to know

A lighter calendar ahead of the Easter holidays - noting Good Friday is a market holiday in the UK, Europe and the USA.

Coming up

On Tuesday 22 March we have UK Inflation Data CPI, RPI, PPI for February. UK inflation as measured by CPI (YoY), showed signs of life in January at +0.3%, well up from October's -0.1%. Factory gate inflation, as recorded by Input PPI (YoY), fell -7.6% in January. Though the latter was better than data in any of the prior 14 months. Why should traders care? Another rise in inflation could suggest the Bank of England is on the right path, which could influence UK interest rates. Watch GBP USD support 1.4237: resistance 1.4429

Thursday 24 March sees Germany's GFK Consumer Confidence survey for April. The influential GFK survey tracks consumer expectations and attitudes across a range of metrics. The headline confidence number edged higher last month to 9.4 and this was the 4th beat in row. A 5th could infer that the german consumer is alive and well, though still cautious. Why should traders care? Healthy consumers are key to economic recovery in the Eurozone and German consumers are at the forefront of this. Watch EUR USD support 1.1202 resistance 1.1306

US GDP Q4 2015 is released on Friday 25 March. GDP is the measure of all the activity in an economy. It's rise or fall is the difference between growth or recession. US GDP has fallen in the last three reads. This final figure for Q4 2015 will help determine if the Fed is steering the right course on rates. Why should traders care? Economic growth, or the lack of it, helps to determine a central bank's interest rate policy and the relative value of a currency to it's peers. Watch Dollar Index support 94.84: resistance 97.29

Chart to watch: S&P 500 daily

Chart [SP500], D1, 2016.03.21 08:26 UTC, Admiral Markets, MetaTrader 4, Demo

The S&P 500 (the broad measure of blue chip US equities) is testing back above key resistance at 2020, having recovered almost all of it's 2016 losses. A sustained move through here could see it move to and through 2049 (last seen on January 4) with potential to 2079.6 thereafter. But a failure here and a move back below the uptrend and support found at 1990, would be negative. I also note that the RSI (14) (lower chart) in the S&P has not exceeded 70 since late November 2014.