Your Weekly Fundamental View (Apr 10–14)

Avril 10, 2017 15:30

Need to know

The main focus of this week is on CAD. The BOC (Bank of Canada) will decide the overnight rate followed by a rate statement. This event should bring volatility to CAD currency basket. Let's take a look at the important fundamentals events this week. The BOC is expected to leave the rate unchanged.

Coming up

USD Chief Fed Yellen is about to speak on Monday, 10 April.

Fed chief Yellen is due to speak at the University of Michigan. Audience questions are expected.

Why should you care? Volatility is often experienced during her speeches as traders try to figure out any hints of possible rate hikes.

GBP CPI is due on Tuesday, 11 April.

The report measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by the consumer.

Why should you care? This could be the UK's most important inflation data because it's used as the central bank's inflation target.

GBP Average Earnings Index is out on Wednesday, 12 April.

The report measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, including bonuses.

Why should you care? It's a leading indicator of the consumer inflation.

USD Crude Oil Inventories are due on Wednesday, 12 April.

A build-up in crude oil inventories usually signals decreasing demand from refiners. On the other hand, a drop would signal that refiners are still producing at elevated levels and the inventory overhang in oil products could continue.

Why should you care? This is primarily a US indicator, but it also affects CAD due to Canada's huge energy sector.

CAD Interest Rate decision is released on Wednesday, 12 April.

Source: CAD historical rate change

The rate decision is usually priced in, and the impact is overshadowed by the BOC rate statement. The BOC is expected to leave the rate unchanged.

Why should you care? The rate decision might be priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the BOC presser that is focused on the future. CAD basket tends to move heavily with this report. Volatility is expected.

AUD Employment data will be released on Thursday, 13 April.

The data represents the change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

Why should you care? Job creation is an important data which tends to influence AUD rate and its movement.

CNY Trade Balance will be out on Thursday, 13 April.

This data represents the difference in value between exported and imported goods during the previous month.

Why should you care? The data might move HSI (Hang Seng Index) and other equities connected to CNY so traders should watch for possible volatility following this report.

USD Unemployment Claims are released on Thursday, 13 April.

These claims are the earliest national economic data, representing the number of individuals who filed for insurance for the first time during the past week. If the actual result comes weaker than the forecast, it could be deemed good for the currency.

Why should you care? The number of unemployed people is an important signal of the overall economic health and could hint at future monetary policy steps.

USD Preliminary Michigan(UoM) Consumer Sentiment and PPI are out on Thursday, 13 April.

Preliminary UoM sentiment represents the level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers is an important gauge for financial confidence. PPI is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Why should you care? USD might move with these reports and traders might trade the news spike in USD crosses.

USD CPI is out on Friday, 14 April.

The report represents the overall change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Why should you care? USD currency basket tends to move with this report.

USD Retail Sales will be released on Friday, 14 April.

The report shows the change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

Why should you care? This is the primary gauge of consumer spending, important for the overall economic activity.